00:00:00: impulses and perspectives the dik T
00:00:03: expert talk hosted by Nikolai bear hello
00:00:09: and welcome to a new edition of impulses
00:00:11: and perspectives today we're going to
00:00:13: talk about the aircraft industry and I'm
00:00:16: talking today with dr. mark japan from
00:00:19: the oxford university hello all right
00:00:23: thank you for having me dr. Chapin
00:00:26: how will the aircraft industry look in
00:00:29: the future after they covet 19 crisis
00:00:31: now well so Koba 19 in many ways is the
00:00:35: most significant crisis for the aviation
00:00:38: industry as a whole and of course that
00:00:41: industry includes the airlines that is
00:00:43: you know those there's an industry they
00:00:45: operate their planes include some
00:00:48: intermediate service providers and then
00:00:50: of course includes the OEMs they
00:00:52: originally put in the makers those
00:00:54: companies that make aircraft like Boeing
00:00:56: like your bus the effect is a little bit
00:00:59: differential I think we've all seen that
00:01:00: airlines have had to reduce the
00:01:03: operations in the major way that of
00:01:06: course has affected their immediate
00:01:07: service suppliers like airports like
00:01:09: your traffic control organizations and
00:01:11: as far as those those players in the
00:01:13: industry that make the actual equipment
00:01:15: like Boeing Airbus or Bombardier and Bri
00:01:18: are concerned they're looking at a
00:01:19: significant downturn in demand a
00:01:22: significant recession which probably
00:01:24: will take two or three years to catch up
00:01:25: on how do we will feel this change as a
00:01:31: passenger is there not so many flights
00:01:35: anymore are the prices higher what what
00:01:38: will the outcomes be there's several
00:01:43: aspects to look at so first of all I
00:01:46: think the the traveling experience
00:01:48: itself will be very much different but
00:01:51: if you think about how you normally fly
00:01:53: and I normally travel and you go to the
00:01:56: airport you go on the plane then you
00:01:57: deeply and you you're right for everyone
00:01:59: you want to go to and that entire
00:02:02: process will be characterized by
00:02:04: additional safety screenings these
00:02:07: paintings before I get on the plane you
00:02:09: will probably be required to bear some
00:02:11: sort of mass during the plane
00:02:12: the service that the airlines
00:02:14: traditionally have offered onboard will
00:02:16: be significantly reduced in the interest
00:02:18: of minimizing the spread of kovat the
00:02:21: ability the bathroom will be somewhat
00:02:22: limited and by the time you deplane
00:02:24: there might well be in Bonn checked so
00:02:26: the travel experience itself will
00:02:29: probably be significantly less pleasant
00:02:31: than they're used to at least from high
00:02:34: quality carriers in terms of frequencies
00:02:37: well the the airline industry is under
00:02:40: significant financial pressure so it's
00:02:43: not unlikely that a number of
00:02:46: point-to-point connections that in the
00:02:48: past were relatively marginal in terms
00:02:49: of their financial results for airlines
00:02:51: that you know those have disappeared and
00:02:54: it will be relatively unlikely that many
00:02:56: of those will come back so there were
00:02:58: probably at least in the in the media -
00:03:01: or to medium term will be less choices
00:03:03: of Rods less chances of connectivity
00:03:06: we'll all airliners survive dis crisis
00:03:12: I wish you and I knew that way we could
00:03:15: borrow a billion bucks from our local
00:03:16: bank and play the market
00:03:20: let me just as a matter of proper
00:03:23: disclosure let me let me state which I
00:03:24: probably should have stated at the
00:03:25: beginning of our conversation that terms
00:03:28: of a previous background I used to work
00:03:30: for one of the major European carriers
00:03:32: Lufthansa that is I still have personal
00:03:34: connections there and obviously I tried
00:03:37: to be as neutral as I can and obviously
00:03:40: I'm not a paid spokesperson for long
00:03:41: times or any other carrier but just as a
00:03:43: matter of proper disclosure I'd like to
00:03:45: point out that that the professional
00:03:46: background that contain personal
00:03:48: connection and additionally as a matter
00:03:50: of proper disclosure I still own a very
00:03:52: very small amount of money in shares in
00:03:54: one of those carrots just just so that
00:03:57: is out as a matter of proper disclosure
00:04:00: now on first sight one might assume that
00:04:04: this economic crisis will result in a
00:04:08: couple of marginal airlines going out of
00:04:10: business and we have seen that a few of
00:04:12: those have faulted already having said
00:04:14: that however you know as we all aware
00:04:16: the airline business is one that is
00:04:18: driven by the loss of economics and
00:04:20: competition and at the same same time it
00:04:22: is also subject to political and
00:04:25: strategic forces on the front of
00:04:26: governments and so we have I think we
00:04:29: have countervailing forces due to this
00:04:31: crisis that on the one hand again the
00:04:33: tremendous economic and market pressures
00:04:35: that would suggest that one would see
00:04:37: significant exits on part of you know
00:04:39: those ones that have had marshal balance
00:04:42: sheets or margin custard peel even prior
00:04:44: to the crisis having said this I think
00:04:47: in many ways the the Cova 19 crisis has
00:04:51: also highlighted the strategic
00:04:53: importance of Airlines and if you just
00:04:55: think about you know highly publicized
00:04:58: cargo flights of all kinds of from all
00:05:01: kinds of countries all over the world
00:05:03: bringing you know bringing back personal
00:05:05: protective equipment and so there into
00:05:07: their respective home countries in many
00:05:09: cases you know from quite far away you
00:05:12: know often from from the major
00:05:14: manufacturing up on this planet from
00:05:16: China and so again on the one hand you
00:05:18: see economic pressures on the other hand
00:05:21: that crisis also seems to highlight the
00:05:23: strategic importance of having at least
00:05:26: a certain member
00:05:26: minimum of long range you know aviation
00:05:31: transport capacity that the government
00:05:34: or society could tap into in moments of
00:05:36: crisis so I'm not quite sure how many
00:05:39: exits there really will be across the
00:05:41: board is there in the European community
00:05:45: like a regulation like in the US chapter
00:05:48: 11 to help bankrupted Airlines out of
00:05:53: their deepest problems that's really
00:05:58: good question so you know the this sort
00:06:01: of two-tier structure that you see in
00:06:03: American bankruptcy respectively you
00:06:05: know restructuring or chapter 11 chapter
00:06:07: 13 and whatnot you know you have that in
00:06:10: some European countries you certainly
00:06:11: don't have it across all of your own and
00:06:15: you know for those companies that
00:06:18: entertain or that flirt was the
00:06:19: possibility of going to some sort of
00:06:21: restructuring you know on the surface of
00:06:23: it there is a certain charted on the
00:06:26: other hand of course the other you know
00:06:28: implications and in the end you know for
00:06:31: most high-quality carriers in a large
00:06:34: part of the business model is the trust
00:06:36: that you know your passengers that the
00:06:38: flying public puts into puts until you
00:06:40: and depending on how you know specific
00:06:43: national laws are structured and
00:06:46: depending on detailed provisions as part
00:06:49: of a american-style Chapter eleven type
00:06:52: of restructuring passengers who have
00:06:55: prepaid tickets might well lose all of
00:06:57: their pre payments now from a purely you
00:07:00: know airline financial modeling point of
00:07:02: view obviously that has a certain charm
00:07:03: in the sense that that you know that
00:07:05: maximizes cash flow on part of the
00:07:08: airline on the other hand if you think
00:07:10: about an airline living of trust and
00:07:13: brand loyalty of its passengers in the
00:07:15: long term you know once you
00:07:17: disenfranchised your passengers and keep
00:07:19: their cash or write down their cash well
00:07:22: you know that is not necessarily all
00:07:24: that much of a very model just to
00:07:27: survive it right and Morton so yes even
00:07:30: in those countries and those European
00:07:31: countries that have the possibility of
00:07:33: going for an american-style type of
00:07:35: restructuring you know we needs to think
00:07:38: very carefully about respective upside
00:07:40: and also defects that that might have so
00:07:43: the the financial pressure on the
00:07:45: airlines is very high at the moment so
00:07:48: before the crisis we already had a very
00:07:51: hard fight between the airlines on
00:07:53: ticket prices and in the last year's we
00:07:57: saw that the seats are going narrow
00:07:59: narrow and more and more passengers were
00:08:02: forced into the same body of an aircraft
00:08:05: will this trend go on to push more
00:08:10: people in in in the same size of an
00:08:12: airplane you're addressing a very
00:08:15: interesting issue obviously COBIT 19 has
00:08:18: has increased the pressure on Airlines
00:08:20: operationally financially in all kinds
00:08:23: of other ways and has increased that
00:08:24: pressure tremendously having said that
00:08:26: and I think this is what I assumed you
00:08:28: were alluding to even prior to the
00:08:30: crisis on an average basis across all
00:08:32: industry you know the airline industry
00:08:34: for many many years for the majority of
00:08:36: its existence worldwide on average basis
00:08:39: really has never achieved to you know
00:08:42: recover its its cost of capital
00:08:45: obviously there have been individual
00:08:47: cares that have been performing quite
00:08:48: well if you think you know in the
00:08:49: European context for example British
00:08:51: Airways has done quite well you know
00:08:53: enough times our group has done quite
00:08:54: well in terms of you know airline
00:08:57: approaches to maximizing revenue out of
00:09:02: you know a fixed asset base as you
00:09:06: referred to that there's pretty much
00:09:07: three ways right number one you raised
00:09:09: prices number two you generate you put
00:09:12: more seats under the airplane number
00:09:15: three you operate in your plane in such
00:09:18: a manner that there's more flights per
00:09:19: day or more flight hours per day
00:09:23: all you know these three levers are
00:09:25: going to be very very hard to operate in
00:09:27: Napoleon now already and especially in
00:09:30: the postcard world to the extent that
00:09:33: raising prices well if there's massive
00:09:35: overcapacity the market raising prices
00:09:37: will not be all that easy in terms of
00:09:40: squeezing more seats into airplanes mean
00:09:43: I airlines over the past years have done
00:09:46: what is technically possible in some
00:09:49: cases that really hasn't affected the
00:09:51: passive experience at least not in
00:09:53: direct way all that much so for examples
00:09:55: removing galleys face that you don't
00:09:56: need because you know providing hot
00:09:58: meals on shorter flights and reducing
00:10:00: the number of lavatory shrinking the
00:10:02: size of laboratories a bit and making
00:10:05: use of you know of space in an airplane
00:10:10: cabin the previous might have been
00:10:11: allocated to you know a cabinet where
00:10:14: you could put up your coats or whatnot
00:10:15: so this has been done and then going
00:10:19: back to your comment yeah you know sit
00:10:21: pitch the the distance between rows in
00:10:25: the airplane seat Ross has been shrunk
00:10:26: seats themselves have been reduced in
00:10:29: size whether that was us that would be
00:10:32: sustainable in the postcode world this
00:10:33: is hard to say in the end it all will
00:10:36: depend on whether regulatory authorities
00:10:39: will demand that sheets get blocked off
00:10:41: or entire Cedros gets blocked off you
00:10:43: know some sort of India type of social
00:10:45: distancing and then the last big lever
00:10:48: of you know generating more revenue
00:10:49: Oliphant give any airplane I'm just
00:10:52: operating the plane more hours per day
00:10:54: obviously there's limits to that as well
00:10:56: and if we think about you know the the
00:11:00: array of measures that are being put
00:11:02: into place you know in airports and then
00:11:05: affect the boarding process you know in
00:11:07: a postcode 19 brokers all kinds of
00:11:09: temperature checks self declarations you
00:11:12: know
00:11:12: spacing in terms of the queue just going
00:11:15: into the airplane possibly not you know
00:11:17: a whole group of people being able to
00:11:18: deep board and having done that in terms
00:11:20: of you know sort of a social distancing
00:11:22: approach to it so deep work you know the
00:11:25: likelihood that turnaround times did the
00:11:27: turnaround times the you know
00:11:29: the span of time that airplanes stays at
00:11:32: the gate before it goes off on and read
00:11:33: me a flight again the probability that
00:11:35: were shrink is about zero more like
00:11:36: we'll probably go you know terms will
00:11:39: become longer which then means in terms
00:11:41: of the third elaborate that you have to
00:11:43: join it Maroney another plane
00:11:44: well you might you might well be looking
00:11:47: at reduced flight hours or reduced
00:11:48: numbers of average flights per day that
00:11:51: you can squeeze on airplanes also yes in
00:11:54: a post covered nineteen bird very likely
00:11:56: airlines will be looking at will have to
00:12:00: manage the reality off of decreasing
00:12:03: revenue per airplane per day most likely
00:12:05: is it possible that yet traveling will
00:12:09: only be possible with subsidies in the
00:12:13: future depending on the way you look at
00:12:16: it in in you know in many cases
00:12:21: commercial air transport has only been
00:12:23: possible due to subsidies in the past
00:12:25: you know there's two hundred-plus
00:12:28: airlines on the planet and depending on
00:12:31: the way you count there's a few dozen
00:12:32: who really you know have performed well
00:12:34: but if performed well financially that
00:12:37: is and that many of their and then
00:12:39: there's a relatively long tail of dozens
00:12:42: if not well over 100 airlines that you
00:12:44: know historically have not performed
00:12:45: well financially and that have only been
00:12:48: able to stay in the game because of
00:12:50: direct or indirect subsidies from the
00:12:52: government or from their respective
00:12:53: governments and so if if in a Preet
00:12:58: Coburn world a number of you know
00:13:01: marginally performia lands were only
00:13:03: able to sustain staying in the industry
00:13:06: based on direct or indirect government
00:13:08: support you know that is not going to
00:13:10: change that's more that's going to get
00:13:12: worse and exacerbated by the crisis if
00:13:14: we talk now a little bit more about the
00:13:17: industry so how are the European
00:13:20: suppliers and producers of aircrafts
00:13:23: will develop after they commit nineteen
00:13:26: crisis well I you know when we talk
00:13:29: about European suppliers at the you know
00:13:31: at the top of you know sort of at the
00:13:33: level of the highest assembly meaning
00:13:34: the whole airplane there really is only
00:13:36: one major player in Europe in the Airbus
00:13:38: at least four commercial airplanes
00:13:39: obviously for military is a slightly
00:13:42: different story but but in essence if
00:13:45: you look at Europe in just this one very
00:13:47: large airplane supply in the Airbus
00:13:51: Airbus is in a relatively difficult
00:13:55: position to the extent that they've
00:13:57: already announced that for some of their
00:13:58: flagship products you know monthly
00:14:00: output annual annual production targets
00:14:03: will be significantly reduced in some
00:14:05: cases say up to 1/2 and the seriousness
00:14:09: of that situation
00:14:10: you know if I think becomes better
00:14:12: understandable if you just think about
00:14:14: you know iconic German automotive
00:14:16: companies imagine what's lagging or a
00:14:19: Mercedes or BMW had to reduce the output
00:14:23: by half or by third and what would be
00:14:25: the impact on those companies by
00:14:28: themselves on their workforce on their
00:14:30: communities and then of course on all
00:14:32: those suppliers so you'll see a similar
00:14:33: effect you know for Airbus and at the
00:14:37: European aerospace industry that
00:14:38: supplies into Airbus and of course this
00:14:40: includes companies and all kinds of
00:14:42: European countries having said that
00:14:45: comparatively speaking I think one could
00:14:49: argue that Airbus again compared to be
00:14:52: speaking that the Airbus is in a
00:14:53: slightly better position and Boeing
00:14:55: simply because you know Airbus does not
00:14:58: have to manage an issue like the point
00:15:00: 737 max which you know causes additional
00:15:06: levels of complexity so boeing has the
00:15:09: advantage that there's a big support
00:15:11: from the from the government and yes
00:15:14: also this big big part with space
00:15:19: activities and military activities are
00:15:23: there civil aircraft program are in
00:15:27: danger to disappear I would be very
00:15:30: surprised if the civil aircraft programs
00:15:32: of a Boeing as a whole would disappear
00:15:34: now boeing has to do significant
00:15:36: production rate cuts you know in some
00:15:38: cases in the neighborhood of about 50%
00:15:41: for the next year or two big bitch of
00:15:44: course will have you know significant
00:15:46: impact again on point itself on its
00:15:48: workforce on the local communities in
00:15:50: which point operates and obviously as
00:15:52: you know similarly profound implications
00:15:54: for the point supply chain
00:15:57: I cannot imagine that you know the
00:16:02: commercial aircraft business of Boeing
00:16:04: will disappear because all of its
00:16:06: aircraft progress will disappear there
00:16:08: are a number of aircraft programs at
00:16:10: Boeing but this one program boy that is
00:16:14: relatively marginal indeed assembled in
00:16:16: the iconic seven the latest version of
00:16:18: the iconic 747 jumbo jet but but that
00:16:23: was relatively marginal prior to the
00:16:24: crisis as well and that will at some
00:16:27: point this continuing the same way that
00:16:29: for example the a380 program a bus will
00:16:32: discontinue if you look at the core of
00:16:34: if you look at the the qualitative core
00:16:38: of Boeing aircraft programs like the 787
00:16:41: the latest version of the of the triple
00:16:44: 7 is a triple 7 eggs that will continue
00:16:49: the interesting part at Boeing will be
00:16:51: December 3 7 max the narrow-body product
00:16:54: you know Boeing has been spending a
00:16:58: tremendous amount of of technical of
00:17:01: customer goodwill of regulatory you know
00:17:04: resources to try to fix the issues that
00:17:09: have plagued the max that came out of
00:17:11: these these horrible crashes caused so
00:17:13: many lives unfortunately they've been
00:17:16: trying hard to to work on that I've been
00:17:17: trying hard to get the aircraft back at
00:17:19: the market to rebuild customer
00:17:21: confidence and at the current moment in
00:17:24: time it looks as though they are you
00:17:26: know absolutely committed to bringing
00:17:28: that aircraft program back now arguably
00:17:32: one could make the point of you know
00:17:37: looking more deeply and thinking whether
00:17:39: considering the historical background of
00:17:41: the 737 max and the inherent design
00:17:45: limitations that come out of that long
00:17:47: historical background and the
00:17:49: configuration of the original 77 whether
00:17:53: boeing might not be well advised to you
00:17:56: know you used to use this crisis and to
00:17:59: take a very hard look of whether there
00:18:01: would not be a very technical
00:18:03: technically and in terms of
00:18:05: technological choices and in terms of
00:18:07: customer acceptance and in terms of
00:18:09: financial implications obviously but
00:18:11: would not be a viable way forward of
00:18:13: branch discontinued the points and the
00:18:15: cemeteries have maxed program and
00:18:17: replacing with a clean sheet aircraft
00:18:19: design well as far as I know from
00:18:22: publicly available sources however at
00:18:25: this point in time Boeing still
00:18:26: committed to making the 737 max break
00:18:29: and bring that into market as soon as
00:18:31: possible so looking into the future of
00:18:36: aircraft construction
00:18:38: how will the airplane of the future look
00:18:41: like and is there a delayed due to
00:18:43: discovered 19 crisis now so how about
00:18:47: more digitalization in the airplane how
00:18:51: about other fuels for the engines or
00:18:55: about electric passenger planes the
00:18:59: pressure to you know for the industry as
00:19:02: a whole to to limit the growth if not
00:19:05: reduce you know carbon dioxide emissions
00:19:07: now that will come back a big time and
00:19:10: so I think there will be a significant
00:19:12: role for biofuel for sustainable
00:19:15: biofuels and the sort of biofuel that
00:19:18: can be generated of resources that you
00:19:21: know quite literally don't take you my
00:19:23: food from food from other human beings
00:19:24: and then can be done in a reasonable way
00:19:27: because if you think about certain types
00:19:29: of approaches to biofuels ok let's cut
00:19:32: down more forests in Brazil to grow you
00:19:35: know stuff that we can turn into
00:19:37: biofuels that really does not make a lot
00:19:39: of sense at all so it needs to be an
00:19:40: intelligent approach to biofuels there's
00:19:43: something and you alluded to this or
00:19:44: something that gets talked about a lot
00:19:46: is electric airplanes now obviously one
00:19:51: should always keep an open mind to new
00:19:54: technologies and one should especially
00:19:57: innovation one should always be careful
00:19:59: about saying that a certain technology
00:20:00: would never happen because of a certain
00:20:02: technology would never happen if we
00:20:03: wouldn't have here place the first place
00:20:04: the 7 the first place they wouldn't have
00:20:07: you know glass cockpits in the first
00:20:10: place we wouldn't a fly-by-wire systems
00:20:12: the first place we wouldn't have
00:20:13: enhanced enhance comfort seventy wiring
00:20:15: systems the first place so maintain an
00:20:16: open mind you know
00:20:18: this regards to the potential of
00:20:20: technology I think is extraordinarily
00:20:22: important
00:20:24: having said that one needs to be very
00:20:27: careful of balancing out in others this
00:20:29: open mind without folly trapped into
00:20:32: some sort of you know taking hype and
00:20:36: there is a lot of potential in electric
00:20:39: airplanes at given the current state of
00:20:42: technology limitation dollars you know
00:20:44: is energy storage nearly batteries and
00:20:47: if you think about the energy density
00:20:49: that can be stored in you know a leader
00:20:51: or a kilogram of money off of jet fuel
00:20:53: compared to much energy you can store in
00:20:55: the battery yeah short branch flights
00:21:00: having a you know a nice little fun
00:21:02: device that you are I could use to fly
00:21:04: out their homes and have a lot of fun
00:21:06: that is variable that exists already
00:21:08: having something you know the size of it
00:21:11: a 320 or 70 was a training or Boeing 77
00:21:15: let alone anything bigger and that has
00:21:17: the range of going from you know London
00:21:22: to New York or from you know born as I
00:21:25: raised to talk you or whatnot that is
00:21:28: still a long long time into the future
00:21:31: considering current realistic technology
00:21:35: trajectories for battery technology so
00:21:38: the addition to energy storage there's
00:21:39: also been an issue of reliability I'm
00:21:41: part of whatever energy storage you know
00:21:43: technology will be using and you know
00:21:46: and I'm not trying to be unduly negative
00:21:49: or be the party poopers first electric
00:21:51: flight is concerned but there are some
00:21:52: significant issues that are pushing both
00:21:56: the loss of physics and the loss of
00:21:57: engineering you know that need to be
00:22:00: resolved prior to you know a jumbo jet
00:22:03: sized electric airplane becoming
00:22:05: becoming realistic apart so maybe a last
00:22:09: question important for us as a passenger
00:22:13: will the prices of airplane tickets go
00:22:16: up or will they go down after the crisis
00:22:20: I think there's two there's two Connolly
00:22:23: forces in the market
00:22:24: number one covert 19 and and and the
00:22:27: operational implications that that has
00:22:29: four Airlines you know additional
00:22:31: measures to be taken to protect crew and
00:22:33: passengers and at the program staff as
00:22:36: well obviously
00:22:38: possibly you no longer turn our infants
00:22:41: at the gate possibly include li possibly
00:22:48: much you know certain limitations how
00:22:51: many people can actually squeeze in turn
00:22:53: airplane you know all of that suggests
00:22:56: that on average prices should go up at
00:22:59: the same time you know if industry
00:23:03: forecasts are to be believed and you
00:23:04: think about the forecasts that
00:23:06: individual units have put out that
00:23:07: industry bodies like yatta have been
00:23:09: putting out if you look at the latest
00:23:11: you know ICAO studies you know about
00:23:14: last year we had about roughly
00:23:17: four-and-a-half billion flying
00:23:18: passengers
00:23:21: that will probably take two or three
00:23:23: years if not longer to recover to the
00:23:25: level there will be as we've talked
00:23:28: about before there will be in number of
00:23:30: market exits and there will be some
00:23:31: capacity reduction but you know the
00:23:34: number that the extent of capacity the
00:23:36: reduction the system will probably be
00:23:38: significantly less than the loss in
00:23:39: passenger revenue but magenta suggests
00:23:42: that there will be significant over
00:23:44: capacity and of course in the past
00:23:45: whatever we have seen over capacity
00:23:47: marketing you've seen relatively intense
00:23:49: price wars that the tickets actually got
00:23:51: cheaper so on the one hand you know
00:23:56: operational implications cost structure
00:23:58: implications from Conan would suggest
00:23:59: that ticket prices go up over capacity
00:24:02: in the market suggests that ticket
00:24:03: prices go down you know if and as long
00:24:09: as airlines are able to attract
00:24:13: additional financial resources be those
00:24:15: from the market at market price will be
00:24:17: those from governments as long as the
00:24:19: airlines are able to attract sufficient
00:24:21: financial resources to be able to
00:24:22: sustain a you know price based fight to
00:24:26: fill capacity I would be somewhat
00:24:29: skeptical if the LC dramatically
00:24:31: increased pricing based on market forces
00:24:34: because again you get these
00:24:35: countervailing effects the interesting
00:24:37: part and this goes back to one of your
00:24:39: earlier questions is and we think about
00:24:41: issues like sustainability the issue of
00:24:44: you know what what role does aviation
00:24:47: have to play in producing you know an
00:24:49: emission of greenhouse gasses to fight
00:24:51: global warming and once airlines will be
00:24:54: in a you know we'll be out of turbulence
00:24:56: will be in stable crucified again
00:24:57: whatever that means you know what will
00:24:59: no governments little voters in
00:25:02: democratic systems will then insist on
00:25:05: putting additional taxes on the airlines
00:25:07: you know in the interest of action
00:25:10: making tickets more expensive in the
00:25:11: interest of reducing air travel in the
00:25:13: interest of reducing co2 emissions and
00:25:15: so I guess my if I had to make a guess
00:25:18: my guess would be that these sort of you
00:25:22: know regulatory regulatory pressures
00:25:25: these sort of non market forces that
00:25:26: those will have as big a role to play in
00:25:29: how you know
00:25:31: airline ticket pricing go
00:25:33: develop in the future as a forces you
00:25:36: know relative to market issues like
00:25:38: covert 19 like pricing on the part of
00:25:41: your hands okay thank you so much dr.
00:25:45: Stephan we heard so much about the
00:25:48: aircraft industry airliners and the a
00:25:50: price tickets once for sure air
00:25:55: traveling will be different after the
00:25:57: crisis than before
00:25:58: thank you a lot and have a good time and
00:26:01: stay safe thank you very much they will
00:26:04: answer if you would like to watch all of
00:26:08: our new episodes please subscribe to our
00:26:10: YouTube channel
00:26:12: [Music]
